Trump Approval Rating Pivot Framework
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Key readings
Economic approval
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GOP approval
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Generic ballot
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Market context
VIX
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Gold
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WTI crude
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Gas avg
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Rates & yield
10Y yield
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2s10s
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30Y yield
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ERP
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Fed hike prob
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Scenario probabilities
No pivot
S1: Stagflation lock-in
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Base case
S2: Tariff rollback
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Trap
S3: Oil trap
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Scenario detail
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Historical trends
Economic Approval %
VIX
Gold (USD)
WTI Crude (USD)
10Y yield %
ERP %
S1: No Pivot %
S2: Tariff Rollback %
S3: Oil Trap %